The basketball card market is full of hype. Some cards deserve it. Others? They’re riding name recognition and FOMO to prices that make zero sense.

Here are 5 basketball cards that are overrated, overpriced, and due for a correction. I’m about to make some enemies.

5. Panini Prizm Itself (The Entire Product)

Hot Take: Prizm is the most overrated product in the hobby.

Before you crucify me, hear me out. Prizm has been riding on its reputation for 15 years. The designs are boring (the same rainbow refractor template since 2012). The quality control is garbage (off-center cards in every box). And the prices are insane ($400+ for hobby boxes that used to cost $120).

Why It’s Overpriced:

  • Panini has a monopoly, so they keep inflating prices
  • The “Silver Prizm” is just a chrome base card with a fancy name
  • The designs haven’t evolved in a decade

What Should It Cost: $200-$250 hobby boxes, not $400+

Will It Crash? Probably not. But newer collectors are starting to question why they’re paying $350 for a box of derivative chrome cards when Topps Chrome exists and looks better.

Unpopular Opinion Award: 🔥🔥🔥

4. 2020 Prizm LaMelo Ball Base PSA 10

Current Price: ~$525 What It Should Be: $300

LaMelo is a great player. ROY winner, All-Star, exciting to watch. But his card prices are propped up by casual collectors who think “ROY = guaranteed superstar.”

Reality Check:

  • LaMelo has never been All-NBA
  • He’s injury-prone (missed significant time in 2024 and 2025)
  • The Hornets are perpetually mediocre
  • His advanced stats are good, not elite

Why It’s Overrated: His cards are priced like he’s a future MVP. He’s not. He’s a good-not-great all-star on a bad team.

Prediction: $525 → $350 by 2027 unless he makes a leap

3. Rookie Patch Autos (RPAs) of Non-Stars

Example: 2024 Stephon Castle RPA /199 sold for $420

RPAs are the most overrated card type in the hobby. People see “patch” and “auto” and lose their minds, ignoring the fact that the player is a fringe rotation guy.

Why They’re Overrated:

  • Patches are just fabric. They’re not rare.
  • Low serial numbers (/99, /199) create artificial scarcity
  • Only RPAs of superstars hold value long-term

Case Study: 2015 Devin Booker Prizm RPA /199 sold for $250 in 2016. Now it’s $8,500. But 2015 Stanley Johnson Prizm RPA /199? Still $40.

The Lesson: An RPA of a bust is still a bust.

What to Buy Instead: Prizm Silver base rookies of stars. They’re cheaper, more liquid, and appreciate better.

2. 1997 Metal Universe Precious Metal Gems (PMG)

Current Price (Green /10): $1,000,000+ for Jordan What It Should Be: $400,000

I know I’m committing hobby blasphemy, but hear me out. PMGs are cool. They’re rare. But they’re also ugly. The design is a chaotic mess of foil and gradients that looks like a Windows 95 screensaver.

Why It’s Overrated:

  • It’s rare, not beautiful
  • The /10 print run creates scarcity, but scarcity ≠ value
  • Jordan has 50+ better-looking cards (1986 Fleer, Topps Chrome Refractors, etc.)

Who Buys These? Ultra-wealthy collectors who want to own the rarest thing, not the best thing.

Would I Buy One? Not at $1M. I’d rather own 5x 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 9s ($200k each) and diversify.

Controversial? Absolutely. True? Also yes.

1. 2023 Victor Wembanyama Flawless RPA /25 BGS 10 Black Label

Sold For: $1,720,000 (December 2025) What It Should Be: $400,000

This is the most overpriced card in the modern hobby. Yes, Wemby is incredible. Yes, BGS 10 Black Labels are insanely rare. But $1.7 million for a second-year player is madness.

Why It’s Overrated:

1. Recency Bias

Wemby hasn’t won MVP, DPOY, or a championship. He’s played one full season. His cards are priced like he’s already a 5x champion.

2. Injury Risk

Wemby is 7’4” and 230 pounds. His body is a ticking time bomb. One knee injury and this card is worth $300k.

3. Black Label Premium Is a Bubble

BGS 10 Black Labels command 5-10x premiums over PSA 10s. That premium is unsustainable. As more Black Labels are graded (BGS is loosening standards slightly), the premium will shrink.

4. Comparable Cards Are Way Cheaper

  • LeBron 2003 Exquisite RPA /99 BGS 9.5: $425,000 (LeBron is a 4x champion and top-3 all-time player)
  • Luka 2018 National Treasures RPA /99 BGS 9.5: $180,000 (Luka is a perennial MVP candidate)

Why is Wemby’s card 4x the price of LeBron’s when LeBron has accomplished 100x more?

Because hype.

Prediction: This card will be worth $600-$800k in 5 years (still valuable, but not $1.7M valuable).

Buyer’s Remorse Incoming: 📉

Honorable Mentions (Also Overrated)

  • 2021 Cade Cunningham Prizm Silver PSA 10 — $180. Should be $60. Cade is mediocre.
  • Panini Contenders Ticket Autos — Cool design, terrible value. Just buy the Prizm Silver instead.
  • Any card of a player having a hot month — 3-game win streaks don’t justify 50% price spikes.

Why Do Overrated Cards Exist?

1. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)

People see prices rising and panic-buy, creating bubbles.

2. Hype Cycles

Social media amplifies hype. A player has one great game, influencers tweet about it, prices spike.

3. Artificial Scarcity

Low serial numbers (/10, /25) make people think a card is rare, even if 50 other /10 parallels exist.

4. Collector Ego

Owning the “rarest” or “most expensive” card is a flex, even if it’s overpriced.

How to Avoid Overpaying

✅ Check Historical Sales

Use eBay sold listings and CardLadder to see if prices are inflated.

✅ Ignore Social Media Hype

Twitter/X and Reddit pump cards constantly. Do your own research.

✅ Compare Similar Cards

If a LaMelo PSA 10 is $525 but a Luka PSA 10 is $1,850, ask yourself: “Is LaMelo really 1/3 as good as Luka?” (No.)

✅ Buy Established Stars

Legends and proven MVPs hold value. Unproven rookies are lottery tickets.

✅ Be Patient

Prices often dip 3-6 months after release. Don’t buy at peak hype.

Final Thoughts

This list will piss people off. If you own these cards, you probably hate me right now. That’s fine.

But the truth is: overrated cards exist, and ignoring them costs you money.

The market will correct. It always does. Don’t be the person left holding a $1.7M Wemby card that’s worth $600k in 3 years.

Buy smart. Ignore hype. Trust fundamentals.

(And yes, I know PMG collectors are going to roast me. Bring it on.)